Understanding FinTech

FinTech – Financial technology is the intersection of technology to deliver financial services such as software to manage financial accounts, make payments or transfer money using smartphones and using analytics to make investment decisions.

The Evolution of FinTech

  • FinTech 1.0 : Infrastructure
  • FinTech 2.0 : Banks
  • FinTech 3.0 : Startups
  • FinTech 3.5 : Emerging Markets

FinTech 2.0: Banks (1967)

  • Evolution of finance and technology
  • First automated teller machine (ATM)
  • First handheld calculator
  • Process of digitization
  • Establishment of a series of domestic and international electronic payment systems in the late 1960s and early 1970s
  • Establishment of NASDAQ the world’s first electronic stock exchange in 1971
  • Online banking system in 1980
  • Program Trading in 1987

FinTech 3.0: Startups and FinTech 3.5: Emerging Markets

  • Global financial crisis – 2008 (real estate market crash)
  • Blockchain – crypto and bitcoin
  • Distributed ledger technologies
  • Peer-to-peer landing
  • Crowdfunding
  • Mobile payment with Smartphones

How 2008 Impacted the development of FinTech?

  • Unemployment
  • Regulatory changes
  • Distrust in Bank
  • Invention of Smartphones – launched in 2007

FinTech Typology

  • Finance and Investment

Alternative to Financing: Crowdfunding, P2P Lending, ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings)

  • Operations and Risk Management

Pre 2008 financial crisis the focus was on Quantitative Risk Modelling Techniques eg. VAR (Value-at- Risk Systems) and after 2008 the financial services spend heavily on IT.

  • Payments and Infrastructure

Electronic payments

  • Data Security and Monetization

Datafication such as Big Data or Artificial Intelligence and Risk such as Hacking and Cyber Security

  • Technology in the Customer Interface

New business technologies

Four Phases of Money

Barter System

In the 9000BC to 600BC with the limitations of the capacity of carrying goods, transporting it across long distance to make exchanges and standardize commence.

Commodity Money

In 1100BC, China used small bronze replicas of goods as token, while some countries also used silver and gold. In Rome, soldiers were paid in salt as their salary.

Coinage

Coinage was the system of creating and issuing coins as a form of currency. The coinage system was introduced by Lydians, currently known as Turkey around 600BC. China introduced paper money in 700AD and Europe did likewise in the year 16000AD

Dematerialized Payments

In the 1950s as the technology advanced and became more widely available, digital payments became more common and the volume of non-cash transaction has been steadily increasing ever since then.

Payment Evolution

  • 1946 – Credit Cards
  • 1950 – Cheques
  • 1980 – ATM
  • 1990 – EMV Standards
  • 2000 – Mobile money, e-wallets and virtual cards
  • 2009 – Bitcoin
  • 2010 – Contactless Cards
  • 2015 – Wearable devices, mobile wallets, other cryptocurrencies

Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS)

Real-time gross settlement (RTGS) systems enable the immediate exchange of large amounts of money between banks. These systems, which are often run by central banks or other financial institutions, are used for high-value transactions. Large sums of money may be transferred quickly and reliably between financial institutions because to RTGS systems’ rapid, secure, and effective architecture. RTGS systems are used to settle a variety of transactions, such as large-value business payments, government securities settlements, and interbank transfers. This is only possible because of technological capacities and customer expectation of instant delivery.

January 2022 Market Overview

NasdaqS&P 500Dow
Jan – 315832.79(+187.83)4796.56(+30.38)36585.06(+246.76)
Jan – 415622.71(-210.08)4793.54(-3.02)36799.65(+214.59)
Jan – 5 15100.17(-522.54)4700.58(-92.96)36407.11(-392.54)
Jan – 6 15080.86(-19.31)4696.05(-4.53)36236.47(-170.64)
Jan – 7 14935.9(-144.96)4677.03(-19.02)36231.66(-4.81)
Week 2
Jan – 1014942.83(+6.93)4670.29(-6.74)36068.87(-162.79)
Jan – 1115153.45(+210.62)4713.07(+42.78)36252.02(+183.15)
Jan – 12 15188.39(+34.94) 4726.35(+13.28) 36290.32(+38.30)
Jan – 1314806.81(-381.58) 4659.03(-67.32) 36113.62(-176.70)
Jan – 1414893.75(+86.94) 4662.85(+3.82) 35911.81(-201.81)
Week 3
Jan 1814506.89(-386.86) 4577.11(-85.74) 35368.47(-543.34)
Jan 1914340.25(-166.64) 4532.76(-44.35) 35028.65(-339.82)
Jan 2014154.02(-186.23) 4482.73(-50.03) 34715.39(-313.26)
Jan 2113768.92(-385.10) 4397.94(-84.79) 34265.37(-450.02)
Week 4
Jan 2413855.13(+86.21) 4410.13(+12.19) 34364.50(+99.13)
Jan 2513539.30(-315.83)4356.45(-53.68) 34297.73(-66.77)
Jan 2613542.12(+2.82) 4349.93(-6.52) 34168.09(-129.64)
Jan 2713352.78(-189.34) 4326.51(-23.42) 34160.78(-7.31)
Jan 2813770.57(+417.79) 4431.85(+105.34) 34725.47(+564.69)
Week 5
Jan 31 14239.88(+469.31) 4515.55(+83.70) 35131.86(+406.39)

Movers

Jan 31

  • Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Communication Services
  • Weak: Energy, Consumer Staples
  • Tech stocks rebound

Jan 28

  • Strong: Information Technology, Communication Services, Real Estate
  • Weak: Energy
  • Investor concern: inflation and interest rates
  • End of month balance sheet adjustments

Jan 27

  • Strong: Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, Materials
  • Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Real Estate, Information Technology, Financials
  • Fed expectations saga continued today to close the market in red
  • Semiconductor sector is weak
  • Supply chain issues causing tech sector to decline
  • Airline industry challenges high wages, fuel cost, maintenance cost and airport parking

Jan 26

  • Strong: Information Technology, Financials
  • Weak: Real Estate, Materials, Communication Services, Industrials
  • FOMC press conference – roll back policy support and risk of high inflation in coming months
  • FOMC rates near zero and will end asset purchase in march 20200

Jan 25

  • Strong: Energy, Financials
  • Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Utilities
  • Investor waiting for FOMC policy decision tomorrow

Jan 24

  • Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials
  • Weak: Utilities, Health Care, Consumer Staples
  • Omicron scare, FED interest rate fear, Mixed corporate results
  • Bounce from oversold result
  • Ukraine war fear

Jan 21

  • Stock market in red
  • Strong: Consumer Staples
  • Weak: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Materials
  • Fed and geopolitics

Jan 20

  • Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Information Technology, Industrials
  • Selling pressure

Jan 19

  • Strong: Consumer Staples, Utilities
  • Weak: Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology
  • Selling pressure from all the sectors
  • Increase in weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index by 2.3%
  • Increase in Housing starts by 1.4% m/m
  • Increase in permits by 9.1% m/m

Jan 18

  • Strong: Energy
  • Weak: Information Technology, Financials, Communication Services
  • Inflation pressure and interest rates hike.
  • 2-yr yield rise 1.00%, 10-yr yield flirts with 1.88%
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey for January dropped to -0.7 from 31.9 in December.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index for January decreased to 83 from 84 in December.

Jan – 14

  • Strong: Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services
  • Weak: Real Estate, Financials, Materials, Utilities
  • Strength in the mega-caps stocks
  • Mixed bank earnings, downbeat economic data, interest rates rise

Jan – 13

  • Strong: Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Staples
  • Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, Communication Services
  • Growth stocks selling interest.
  • Airlines outperform after beating estimates.
  • PPI increased by 0.2% m/m.
  • Initial claims for the week ending January 8 increased by 23,000 to 230,000.

Jan – 12

  • An increase in CPI data 0.5% month-over-month in December and 7.0% year-over-year. Sharpest 12-month increase since June 1982. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.6% month-over-month and was up 5.5% year-over-year. This was the sharpest 12-month increase since February 1991.
  • The Treasury Budget showed a $21.3 bln deficit in December versus a $143.6 bln deficit in the same period a year ago. December marked the 27th consecutive month that the Treasury has seen a budget deficit.
  • The budget deficit over the last 12 months is $2.58 trln versus a deficit of $2.70 trln in November.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index increased 1.4% following a 5.6% decline in the prior week.
  • Weekly EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 4.55 mln barrels after decreasing by 2.14 mln barrels during the previous week.
  • Fed’s Beige Book for January reported that economic activity in the U.S. expanded at a modest pace in the last weeks of 2021 and that some districts observed a deceleration in the robust price increases from the previous months.
  • Jan-11 : Fed Chair Powell’s Senate confirmation hearing. Fed will end asset purchases in March, hike rates over the course of the year and allow the balance sheet to run off later in the year.
  • Jan-5 : Fed Minutes from the December meeting showed that participants thought it would be appropriate to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet at a faster pace than during the previous normalization period.
  • Jan-4: Daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. topped one million, ISM Manufacturing Index decelerated more than expected to 58.7% from 61.1% in November, it still denoted an expanding manufacturing sector.
  • Jan- 3: Higher oil prices , Big tech earnings, tax loss selling pressure.

Market Movers – July 2020

July 6

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for June increased to 57.1 (Note: above 50 is expansion)

July 2

  • June non-farm payroll jobs increased by 4.8 million.
  • A decline in the unemployment rate to 11.1%.
  • Sector performance: Energy (2.95%), Financials (2.17%), Industrials (1.98%), Materials (1.97%), Consumer Discretionary (1.33%), Information Technology (1.31%), Consumer Staples (1.20%), Real Estate (1.04%), Health Care (0.85%), Comminucation Services (0.72%), Utilities (0.59%)

July 1

  • Promising signs of COVID vaccine by Pfizer Link
  • ISM Manufacturing Index 52.6 (above 50 is Expansion) Link
  • Private sector Payroll Gain (2.37 million jobs) Link
  • FOMC’s June meeting Link

Credit Cards:

Trading: Understanding the Basics

Understanding the Basics

How to Measure Risk

Standard Deviation (volatility)

Measures how much price fluctuate over time, high volatility the greater chance of losing more money.

Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio)

Price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) – price of stock divide by earnings per share eg. 20/2 = 10 read more…

Price to Book Ratio (PB Ratio)

Methods of Trading

  1. Algorithmic Trading
  2. Quantitative Trading

Stock Trading Markets (Financial Markets)

NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX

What are ETFs?

Exchange traded funds (group of stocks) eg. spy (local and international)

Pricing

Bid – most someone willing to pay

Ask – most someone willing to sell

Bid-Ask Spread – is the difference deciding whether trade proceeds, the bigger the spread it is less likely for the trade and results in liquidity.

Types of Orders

Market Order: market orders involve buying stock at the best available price, routed the time it is placed.

Limit Order: willing to buy stock at certain price

Trading: Price to Earnings Ratio

Price to Earnings Ratio

Measures how much you are paying for the company’s earning.

The higher the price-to-earnings ratio the more expensive is the stock price.

Higher price-to-earnings ratio indicates that the company is very popular and it attracts more buyers in the market.

Average P/E Ratio = 17

High P/E Ration > 25

High P/E companies are very optimistic about future and stock price are overvalued and when bubble happens investors are more likely to lose quite a lot.

Low P/E

  • Company is undervalued, trading at low price
  • Company most likely have high earnings

It is best to find the correlation between low P/E ratio and above average returns.

Trading: Dollar Cost Averaging

Dollar Cost Averaging

DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) vs LSI (Lump Sump Investing)

In stock market past performance cannot guarantee the future performance because every bear market decline, crash and panic.

DCA is simply where you invest same amount of money at regular intervals: every month, year or week regardless of market trend.

It will force the invester to buy more when the price is low and less vise versa.

Benefits related to DCA is that the invester will not be devasted by the losses that come along.

DCA encourages you to be patient and stick to the market for a long term during ups and down.

Example:
Month 1 : Stock Price $10 Bought 50 shares 
Month 2 : Stock Price $5 Bought 100 shares 
Month 3 : Stock Price $5 Bought 100 shares
Month 4 : Stock Price $15 Total 250 shares

Trading: Stock Beginners Guide

Stock Beginners Guide

What is Stock?

Ownership share in a company.

What is investment?

An asset or item purchased that will appreciate in the future, generate income or sold at a higher price.

With money you can buy shares, bonds, mutual funds or do fixed deposit.

Inflation

When cost of living increases (prices of goods and services increases).

Dividend – share of profits paid out to shareholders

Market Capitalization Analysis

Price * No of shares outstanding = total value of all of the stock outstanding.

RangeStock ValueAnalysis
Nano Cap< $50mHighly Risky
Micro Cap< $250mHighly Risky
Small Cap$250m – $1bPotential growth
Mid Cap$1b – $10b Safety investing and potential growth
Large Cap$10b – $50b Conservative stock investors
Greater safety
Ultra Cap> $50bBiggest of the big eg. Apple, Google

Read More:

Dollar Cost Averaging

Price to Earning Ratio